As per JLL’s recent Global Real Estate Outlook,
Mumbai’s office space occupiers will have to face upward revisions in rents in
the coming years. Compared to Q2 2015 when Mumbai’s rental values had bottomed
out, the city will now start to see acceleration in its rental value growth
from Q2 2016.
The research tracks rents (in local currency) for
prime Grade-A office spaces in several cities’ CBDs (or their equivalent)
across the globe. It then puts these cities on a ‘rental clock’ representing
the cyclical nature of office rents.
In Mumbai, Bandra Kurla Complex is the
de-facto CBD. The original CBD of Nariman Point long lost out to
newer micro-markets due to the evolving needs of occupiers, which it has not
been able to provide.
In terms of future upward pressure on office
rentals, Mumbai is in the company of cities like Sydney, Brussels, Paris,
Milan, Amsterdam, Madrid, Chicago and Boston. In 2Q15, Mumbai’s place on the
rental clock was shared by Paris, Brussels, Istanbul and Washington DC. Out of
these five, Paris saw a drastic acceleration in rental value growth while both
Brussels and Mumbai marched ahead at a slower pace. Washington DC, however,
still remains at the same place as last year. Interestingly, Istanbul is now
seeing rental values of its prime office spaces falling.
Market
dynamics
Mumbai,
being the financial capital of India, has traditionally seen a lot of office
space take-up by BFSI players and IT/ ITeS (mostly back-office operations of
BFSI firms) in different micro-markets. Moreover, showing faith in India’s
economic growth, many occupiers have been in expansionary mode, says Anuj
Puri, Chairman & Country Head, JLL India.
In a report last year, JLL had forecast that average
city-level rents will continue to rise and that the city and suburbs will move
from being tenant-oriented to being landlord-oriented after 4-5 quarters. A
tenant-driven market indicates oversupply of office space, falling rents, weak
demand and big incentives available to tenants, whereas a landlord-orientated
market indicates limited supply of office space, rising rents, strong demand
and no incentives for tenants.
As JLL had also pointed out, occupiers will take up
spaces in less ideal locations as good buildings at ideal locations will fill
up quickly on the back of continued demand. Grade-B buildings in good areas
will also see renewed interest from occupiers. If the state government improves
connectivity and takes up more reforms, additional land parcels in the
peripheral areas would open up for residential development and existing office
districts could then see further expansion.