It is
important to observe how the Delhi National Capital Region (Delhi-NCR) real
estate markets have performed over the past year or so. All three sectors -
office, retail and residential - are witnessing growth because of the suburban
towns surrounding the prime city. The reasons for this are the large untapped
development potential in the suburbs and the substantial financial viability
and affordability that are available to both developers and end-users in these
locations.
There
was a period of stagnation in 2012, followed by office space occupiers adopting
consolidation measures. The global economic signals were sluggish and the
impact was most visible on Delhi NCR office market that is driven primarily by
the IT sector.
As
Europe and US are in the throes of a slowdown, office demand has dipped and, as
a result, 2012 recorded the lowest absorption volumes in eight years at 3.8
million sq ft.
Occupiers
of office space were looking at portfolio rationalisation and cost control
measures such as relocation and/or consolidation and space inquiries were the
dominant aspect of demand in the office markets.
It is
pertinent to note that since 2009, the annual new supply of commercial office
space has caused the total stock to rise by 70% (from end-2009) to nearly 70
million sq ft at end-2012, says JLL India in its latest report. Previously,
from 2006 to 2009, stock had more than doubled to more than 40 million sq ft by
end-2009. This points towards new supply also showing a slight correction, as
demand levels remained steady.
Demand
levels started showing an improvement over the first half of 2013, with fresh
absorption already at 62% of 2012 levels. Gross transaction volumes also showed
an increase and were nearly 1.8 million sq ft during 2Q13, compared to 0.98
million sq ft in 1Q13, a substantial 84% q-o-q improvement. The prime office
sub-markets are still the suburbs of Gurgaon and Noida, says the report.
Within
these sub-markets, DLF Cyber City and Sohna Road in Gurgaon and the
Noida-Greater Noida Expressway in Noida are the most sought after office
destinations. The office markets of Delhi (CBD and SBD) remain marginal players
in terms of fresh supply and absorption volumes.
The
Delhi NCR retail sector has a unique character - the market, with its combined
per capita incomes being one of the highest in the country provides every
retailer with a healthy consumer base.
For
analysis, the JLL has segregated organised retail in this market into the Prime
South (South Delhi retail mall developments), Prime Others (mall developments
in the north, west, east and the rest of Delhi) and Suburbs (Greater Noida,
Noida, Ghaziabad, Faridabad and Gurgaon) sub-markets.
Retailers
have over recent quarters been aligning their growth strategy with a focus on
their business margins and expanding in previously untapped markets. The focus
was to grow selectively in existing prime retail assets or select new and
under-construction projects that offered the optimum advantages of location,
brand visibility and a pure leasehold ownership model. This led to slow
absorption volumes that were the norm across most quarters during the past 18
months.
Only
first quarter and fourth quarter of 2012 saw moderate absorption, primarily
because of new project completions in the suburbs that became operational with
moderate pre-commitment levels. The period under consideration was marked by
two major trends. One, retailers were downsizing the number of stores, closing
those that were recording low business volumes. Large format retailers were
also looking at reducing their typical store sizes.
Mall
management teams, on the other hand, became active in tenant management,
undertaking periodic tenant performance reviews and letting go low-performing
tenants for better prospects.