India's GDP growth slows to 6.1% in Q3

India’s GDP growth has registered a moderate increase of 6.1 per cent for Q3 2011-12 compared to the corresponding quarter last year with key indicators of construction sector -- cement and consumption of finished steel -- registering significant growth of 9.4 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively, while agriculture, which used to contribute majorly for GDP growth was pegged messily at 2.7 per cent.

However, the GDP growth is slower than the 6.9 per cent in the September quarter, and has been declining for the past nine quarters. This is also the lowest in the past 13 quarters.

Finance Minister, Pranab Mukherjee termed the third quarter GDP number of 6.1 per cent as "disappointing" but expressed the hope that economy will register a growth of 7 per cent for the entire fiscal. "No doubt, it is disappointing 6.1 per cent ... but not unexpected," he said. "If, I take first quarter, second quarter, third quarter taken together, it is also indicating a downward trend," he said.

In a data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Wednesday, construction and real estate sections have registered 7.2 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively while electricity, gas and water supply sectors clocked 9 per cent growth, trade, hotels, transport and communication at 9.2 per cent and financing, insurance and business services at 9 per cent. The growth rate in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’ and ‘manufacturing’ is estimated at 2.7 per cent, -3.1 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively in this period. 

According to the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture, the production of coarse cereals and pulses during the kharif season of 2011-12 is estimated to have declined by 4.6 per cent and 10.3 per cent respectively while rice has increased by 11.8 per cent over the corresponding season in the previous agriculture year.   Among the commercial crops, the production of oilseeds is estimated to have declined by 5.1 per cent during the Kharif season of 2011-12, while the production of sugarcane and cotton is expected to grow by 1.6 per cent and 3.3 per cent, respectively, during the agriculture year 2011-12. However, horticultural crops and livestock products are expected to grow at 2.6 per cent and 4.7 per cent, respectively, during 2011-12, a government release said.

According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity have registered growth rates of -4.6 per cent, 0.8 per cent and 9.6 per cent, respectively as compared to the growth rates of 6.3 per cent, 9.2 per cent and 6.5 per cent in these sectors in Q3 of 2010-11.  In the mining sector, production of coal and crude oil have registered growth rates of 0.8 per cent and -4.1 per cent in Q3 of 2011-12, as against the growth rates of 1.6 per cent and 15.5 per cent in Q3 of 2010-11. 

Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 5.3 per cent and 5.6 per cent, respectively, as against the growth rates of 4.0 per cent and 6.2 per cent, in the corresponding period of previous year.  In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of 22 per cent, -4.8 per cent, -2.8 per cent and 12.9 per cent, respectively over Q3 of 2010-11. 

The key indicators of banking, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 11.9 per cent and 10.7 per cent, respectively during April-December, 2011-12 over the corresponding period in 2010-11.  

  

Wholesale Price Index

The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups food articles, non-food articles, fish, minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 6.3 per cent, 4 per cent, 20.4 per cent, 22.4 per cent, 7.9 per cent, 2.6 per cent,  and 8.9 per cent, respectively during Q3 of 2011-12, over Q3 of 2010-11. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 8.4 per cent during Q3 of 2011-12 over Q3 of 2010-11.